COE supply down 0.8% for February to April period, first drop since late 2022

SINGAPORE – There will be 160 fewer certificates of entitlement (COEs) available for the tender between February and April, marking a 0.8 per cent dip over the preceding three-month period.

This is the first time that the three-month COE supply has decreased since the November 2022 to January 2023 period, when it went down by 13.8 per cent over the preceding period.

In all, 18,824 certificates will be available for bidding, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) said on Jan 22.

This is down from the 18,984 COEs available from November 2025 to January 2026.

The supply of Category A COEs, used to register smaller and less powerful cars and electric vehicles (EVs), from February to April will stand at 7,585 certificates, a decrease of 1 per cent from 7,662.

At 4,864 COEs, the supply of Category B certificates – meant for larger and more powerful cars and EVs – will be 1.7 per cent more than the 4,783 certificates available in the preceding period.

Open category (Category E) COEs – which can be used to register any vehicle type other than motorcycles, but tend to be used to register larger and more powerful cars and EVs – will see the biggest drop of 13 per cent, from 1,649 to 1,435 certificates.

The combined supply of Category B and Open category certificates for larger cars will come up to 6,299 certificates – 2.1 per cent lower than the 6,432 certificates in the preceding period.

There will be 1,742 certificates for commercial vehicles (Category C), 3 per cent higher than the 1,692 certificates before.

The number of motorcycle (Category D) COEs for the next three months will stand at 3,198. This remains unchanged from the preceding period.

The COE supply for each period is mainly determined by the average number of vehicle deregistrations in the previous four quarters.

To stabilise supply, LTA also brings forward COEs of vehicles that are due to be deregistered in the future.

These vehicles are earmarked, and no new COEs will be issued when they are deregistered.

Part of the supply also comes from the pool of about 20,000 additional COEs that LTA said it will progressively inject from February 2025.

This is on top of LTA’s allowable vehicle population growth rate, which has remained at zero for all COE categories since 2018 other than that for commercial vehicles, which is allowed to increase at a rate of 0.25 per cent per annum.

This policy remains in place until Jan 31, 2028.

The decision to inject additional quota was based on evolving travel patterns, with the total mileage clocked by vehicles coming down, as well as the transition to the new Electronic Road Pricing system, which enables the authorities to better manage traffic congestion.

Combined, the number of COEs brought forward and injected for the February to April period will come up to 3,041 across the car and motorcycle categories. This is fewer than the 3,646 certificates redistributed in the preceding period.

There are no exact guidelines on how many COEs are introduced in each supply period.

The latest COE supply announcement came a day after the close of

a COE exercise

, where premiums for cars climbed on the back of the Singapore Motorshow held from Jan 8 to 11.

Some motor dealers were surprised by the lower quota, with Mr Neo Nam Heng, honorary adviser to the Automobile Importer and Exporter Association, saying that he was “disappointed”.

Mr Neo, who is also the chairman of the Prime diversified motor group, said the number of deregistrations has been rising, which should result in a larger COE supply.

In the latest announcement, LTA said the supply calculation was based on 66,778 vehicle deregistrations made between January and December 2025.

This is higher than the 62,313 deregistrations used in the calculation for the previous period.

Mr Ron Lim, head of sales and marketing at Nissan agent Tan Chong Motor, said more vehicles linked to previously reallocated COEs are now being deregistered, which has reduced recent quotas.

Referencing

LTA’s announcement in October 2025

that the supply of Category A COEs is expected to peak and even out in the coming quarters, Mr Lim reckons that the supply of Category A COEs may not increase further until all reallocated COEs have been taken out.

Taking a longer view, Associate Professor Walter Theseira, a transport economist at the Singapore University of Social Sciences, said that COE supply has not peaked, and he expects the supply to continue increasing over the next few years, given that there is still a sizeable number of cars due to be deregistered.

However, he noted that it is LTA that decides when and how many future COEs or injections to bring into the system, adding that the latest announcement shows that the authorities have made the choice to stabilise the supply for now.

Mr Lee Hoe Lone, managing director of Premium Automobiles, which distributes various Chinese EV brands, estimates that there are around 70,000 cars near the end of their COE lifespan, which would boost future COE supply.

In the immediate term, Ms Corinne Chua, managing director of Volvo Cars at multi-brand distributor Wearnes Automotive, said that the drop in supply is quite small, and she does not expect buyers to rush to buy a car for fear of COE premiums spiking.